San Diego vs Houston Dynamo preview
In the match between San Diego and Houston Dynamo, the 1X2 probabilities show San Diego at 45%, while Houston Dynamo sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 52% probability, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides.
San Diego's recent form is D-D-L-L-L-W, while Houston Dynamo has L-D-L-W-D-D. The expected goals are close, with San Diego at 1.25 and Houston Dynamo at 1.24. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. A low-scoring game could make the prediction for Over 2.5 goals incorrect.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo: model vs market
| Source | San Diego | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -13% | +5% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Diego, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 1.90 | 1.91 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.78 | +0.03 |
| Houston Dynamo | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Diego and Houston Dynamo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (San Diego / Houston Dynamo)
- 1.03 / 0.74
- Defence rating (San Diego / Houston Dynamo)
- 1.22 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Diego goals. Columns: Houston Dynamo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Diego vs Houston Dynamo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Diego | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Houston Dynamo | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Diego or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Houston Dynamo) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win by 2+ | 16% | 6.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Diego and Houston Dynamo recent form
San Diego
1W 2D 3L
Houston Dynamo
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Diego at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Houston Dynamo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Diego at home only, Houston Dynamo away only.
San Diego vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Diego 1 · draws 0 · Houston Dynamo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Houston Dynamo | 1-0 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-05 | Houston Dynamo | 2-4 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-06 | San Diego | 3-4 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes 2026-10-15
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page 2026-10-15
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Los Angeles FC vs Austin 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- San Diego, previous: New York Red Bulls v San Diego analysis
- Houston Dynamo, previous: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo prediction