St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps preview
In the match between St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps, the 1X2 probabilities are St. Louis City at 39%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 36%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. St. Louis City has an expected goals figure of 2.25, while Vancouver Whitecaps sits at 1.45.
The potential for Over 2.5 goals stands at 71%, and both teams to score is at 69%. St. Louis City is in better recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Vancouver Whitecaps has only 2 wins in the same period. However, Vancouver has a stronger historical record with 4 wins in their last 8 encounters. This could influence the outcome.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps: model vs market
| Source | St. Louis City | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | +21% | -3% | -17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +20.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Louis City, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 2.74 | 2.74 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.30 | 2.27 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (St. Louis City / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 1.39 / 1.17
- Defence rating (St. Louis City / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 0.90 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Louis City goals. Columns: Vancouver Whitecaps goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Louis City or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Vancouver Whitecaps) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win by 2+ | 34% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form
St. Louis City
4W 1D 1L
Vancouver Whitecaps
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Louis City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vancouver Whitecaps away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Louis City at home only, Vancouver Whitecaps away only.
St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: St. Louis City 2 · draws 2 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-3 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-24 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-2 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-20 | St. Louis City | 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-14 | St. Louis City | 1-4 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-06-30 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 4-3 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-10-05 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-0 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-28 | St. Louis City | 3-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-02-12 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-0 | St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes 2026-10-15
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- St. Louis City, previous: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy prediction
- Vancouver Whitecaps, previous: Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps: odds and pick