Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC preview
In the match between Toronto FC and Orlando City SC, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 38%, with a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 7% chance of occurring. Toronto FC has struggled recently with a form of L-L-L-W-D-D, while Orlando City SC is in better shape, winning their last 4 matches.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each have a 73% likelihood according to our model. Toronto FC's expected goals stand at 1.79, while Orlando City SC's is slightly higher at 2.01. A potential factor that could influence these predictions is Toronto FC's recent poor form compared to Orlando City SC's winning streak.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC: model vs market
| Source | Toronto FC | Draw | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Published | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toronto FC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 2.38 | 2.35 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Orlando City SC | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (Toronto FC / Orlando City SC)
- 0.87 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Toronto FC / Orlando City SC)
- 1.21 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toronto FC goals. Columns: Orlando City SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Orlando City SC | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toronto FC or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Orlando City SC) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC recent form
Toronto FC
1W 2D 3L
Orlando City SC
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toronto FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 2.07
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orlando City SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-9
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 3.36
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toronto FC at home only, Orlando City SC away only.
Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Toronto FC 2 · draws 1 · Orlando City SC 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Orlando City SC | 3-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-18 | Toronto FC | 4-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-02 | Orlando City SC | 4-2 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-03 | Toronto FC | 1-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-04-27 | Orlando City SC | 1-2 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-10-21 | Toronto FC | 0-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-07-04 | Orlando City SC | 4-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-09-17 | Orlando City SC | 4-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-05-14 | Toronto FC | 0-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-07-17 | Toronto FC | 1-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution 2026-10-14
- Inter Miami v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Toronto FC, previous: Toronto FC v CF Montreal analysis
- Orlando City SC, previous: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew prediction