Toronto FC vs CF Montreal: model vs market
| Source | Toronto FC | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.28.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toronto FC, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 1.75 | 1.90 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.76 | -0.20 |
| CF Montreal | 3.90 | 3.50 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toronto FC and CF Montreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Toronto FC / CF Montreal)
- 0.87 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Toronto FC / CF Montreal)
- 1.21 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toronto FC goals. Columns: CF Montreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toronto FC | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| CF Montreal | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toronto FC or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or CF Montreal) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toronto FC win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Toronto FC and CF Montreal recent form
Toronto FC
1W 2D 3L
CF Montreal
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toronto FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 2.07
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Montreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-10
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 2.77
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toronto FC at home only, CF Montreal away only.
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Toronto FC 1 · draws 2 · CF Montreal 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | CF Montreal | 0-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-30 | Toronto FC | 1-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-17 | CF Montreal | 1-6 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
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