Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake: model vs market
| Source | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 69% | 17% | 13% |
| Edge | +14% | -6% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Philadelphia Union below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Philadelphia Union, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.33 | 1.40 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 4.85 | -0.40 |
| Real Salt Lake | 7.70 | 6.09 | -1.61 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.11
- Attack rating (Philadelphia Union / Real Salt Lake)
- 1.71 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Philadelphia Union / Real Salt Lake)
- 0.85 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Philadelphia Union goals. Columns: Real Salt Lake goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Philadelphia Union | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.73 | |
| Real Salt Lake | 13% | 7.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Philadelphia Union or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Salt Lake) | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win by 2+ | 62% | 1.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake recent form
Philadelphia Union
6W 0D 0L
Real Salt Lake
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Philadelphia Union at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Salt Lake away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-9
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Philadelphia Union at home only, Real Salt Lake away only.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
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- Inter Miami vs DC United 2026-10-10
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-10
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