Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Kansas City | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Market | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Published | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Edge | +2% | -2% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sporting Kansas City below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Kansas City, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 2.55 | 2.36 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.91 | +0.01 |
| Portland Timbers | 2.33 | 2.50 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.03
- Attack rating (Sporting Kansas City / Portland Timbers)
- 1.00 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Sporting Kansas City / Portland Timbers)
- 1.27 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Kansas City goals. Columns: Portland Timbers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Kansas City | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Portland Timbers | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Kansas City or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Portland Timbers) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Kansas City win by 2+ | 24% | 4.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers recent form
Sporting Kansas City
2W 0D 4L
Portland Timbers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Kansas City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
Portland Timbers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-9
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Kansas City at home only, Portland Timbers away only.
Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sporting Kansas City 0 · draws 0 · Portland Timbers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Portland Timbers | 6-0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-11 | Portland Timbers | 1-0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-13 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-4 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
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