Austin vs Nashville SC: model vs market
| Source | Austin | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Published | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Edge | +3% | +4% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Austin vs Nashville SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nashville SC, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 3.50 | 3.90 | +0.40 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.71 | +0.01 |
| Nashville SC | 1.95 | 1.83 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Austin and Nashville SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Austin / Nashville SC)
- 0.91 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Austin / Nashville SC)
- 0.85 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austin vs Nashville SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austin goals. Columns: Nashville SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austin vs Nashville SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austin vs Nashville SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 25% | 4.07 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Nashville SC | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austin or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Nashville SC) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Austin and Nashville SC recent form
Austin
2W 4D 0L
Nashville SC
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-3
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austin at home only, Nashville SC away only.
Austin vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Austin 0 · draws 0 · Nashville SC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Austin | 1-2 | Nashville SC | US Open Cup |
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