New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders: model vs market
| Source | New England Revolution | Draw | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New England Revolution, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 1.74 | 1.87 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| Seattle Sounders | 4.00 | 3.60 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New England Revolution and Seattle Sounders expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (New England Revolution / Seattle Sounders)
- 1.10 / 1.02
- Defence rating (New England Revolution / Seattle Sounders)
- 0.97 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New England Revolution goals. Columns: Seattle Sounders goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New England Revolution | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Seattle Sounders | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New England Revolution or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Seattle Sounders) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | New England Revolution win by 2+ | 23% | 4.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New England Revolution and Seattle Sounders recent form
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
Seattle Sounders
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New England Revolution at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Seattle Sounders away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: New England Revolution at home only, Seattle Sounders away only.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
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