Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew: model vs market
| Source | Orlando City SC | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Orlando City SC below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Orlando City SC, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 2.03 | 2.02 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.82 | +0.02 |
| Columbus Crew | 3.12 | 3.04 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Orlando City SC / Columbus Crew)
- 1.21 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Orlando City SC / Columbus Crew)
- 1.19 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orlando City SC goals. Columns: Columbus Crew goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Columbus Crew | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orlando City SC or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Columbus Crew) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew recent form
Orlando City SC
4W 0D 2L
Columbus Crew
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orlando City SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-4
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Columbus Crew away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Orlando City SC at home only, Columbus Crew away only.
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Orlando City SC 4 · draws 3 · Columbus Crew 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Orlando City SC | 2-1 | Columbus Crew | US Open Cup |
| 2026-04-12 | Columbus Crew | 1-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-04 | Orlando City SC | 1-1 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-25 | Columbus Crew | 1-3 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-21 | Columbus Crew | 4-3 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-25 | Orlando City SC | 0-2 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-11-25 | Orlando City SC | 0-2 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-16 | Orlando City SC | 4-3 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-13 | Columbus Crew | 2-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-09 | Orlando City SC | 2-1 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
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