New York Red Bulls vs San Diego: model vs market
| Source | New York Red Bulls | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -1% | +4% | -3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Diego, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 2.10 | 2.56 | +0.46 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.80 | -0.10 |
| San Diego | 2.98 | 2.40 | -0.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New York Red Bulls and San Diego expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (New York Red Bulls / San Diego)
- 0.63 / 1.03
- Defence rating (New York Red Bulls / San Diego)
- 0.95 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals. Columns: San Diego goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York Red Bulls vs San Diego goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| San Diego | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York Red Bulls or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or San Diego) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Diego win by 2+ | 17% | 5.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New York Red Bulls and San Diego recent form
New York Red Bulls
2W 1D 3L
San Diego
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York Red Bulls at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New York Red Bulls at home only, San Diego away only.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page 2026-10-10
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-10
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter Miami vs DC United 2026-10-10
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-10
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo 2026-10-11