Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati: model vs market
| Source | Atlanta United FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Market | 40% | 24% | 35% |
| Published | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | +11% | -2% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atlanta United FC below the model: +10.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atlanta United FC, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| FC Cincinnati | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.68
- Attack rating (Atlanta United FC / FC Cincinnati)
- 0.89 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Atlanta United FC / FC Cincinnati)
- 1.04 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlanta United FC goals. Columns: FC Cincinnati goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| FC Cincinnati | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlanta United FC or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cincinnati) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta United FC win by 2+ | 31% | 3.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati recent form
Atlanta United FC
1W 3D 2L
FC Cincinnati
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlanta United FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Cincinnati away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-7
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.86
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta United FC at home only, FC Cincinnati away only.
Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atlanta United FC 1 · draws 1 · FC Cincinnati 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | FC Cincinnati | 2-0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-25 | Atlanta United FC | 4-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-22 | FC Cincinnati | 2-2 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
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