Charlotte vs FC Dallas Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Charlotte vs FC Dallas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Charlotte	Draw	FC Dallas
Model	53%	25%	22%
Market	43%	25%	32%
Published	45%	25%	29%
Edge	+10%	0%	-9%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.13.
The market prices Charlotte below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Charlotte vs FC Dallas odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Charlotte, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.

Opened 1.90Now 2.15 +0.25

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Charlotte	1.90	2.15	+0.25
Draw	3.80	3.64	-0.16
FC Dallas	3.50	2.92	-0.58

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Charlotte and FC Dallas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Charlotte

1.13FC Dallas

Total expected goals: 2.97
Attack rating (Charlotte / FC Dallas): 1.11 / 1.05
Defence rating (Charlotte / FC Dallas): 0.79 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Charlotte vs FC Dallas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 4.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1 8.3% 11.7% 6.0% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.8% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8% 3 5.3% 6.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.7% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Charlotte goals. Columns: FC Dallas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Charlotte vs FC Dallas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Charlotte vs FC Dallas

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Charlotte	45%	2.20
	Draw	25%	3.96
	FC Dallas	29%	3.42
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.75
	Under 2.5	43%	2.33
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.39
Double chance	1X (Charlotte or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or FC Dallas)	55%	1.83
Handicap -1	Charlotte win by 2+	31%	3.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
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Charlotte and FC Dallas recent form

Charlotte 3W 2D 1L

FC Dallas 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Charlotte at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-4-3
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.86
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 3 of 14

They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Dallas away

Record (W-D-L): 7-3-4
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.79
Goals against / match: 1.57
Clean sheets: 3 of 14

They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Charlotte at home only, FC Dallas away only.

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

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New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-10
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Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo 2026-10-11

Prediction snapshot Charlotte to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Charlotte