Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo: model vs market
| Source | Minnesota United FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | -9% | +1% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Minnesota United FC, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 2.00 | 2.05 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.52 | -0.10 |
| Houston Dynamo | 3.25 | 3.23 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Minnesota United FC / Houston Dynamo)
- 1.17 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Minnesota United FC / Houston Dynamo)
- 1.41 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Minnesota United FC goals. Columns: Houston Dynamo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Houston Dynamo | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Minnesota United FC or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Houston Dynamo) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Minnesota United FC win by 2+ | 17% | 5.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo recent form
Minnesota United FC
0W 1D 5L
Houston Dynamo
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Minnesota United FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-5
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Houston Dynamo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Minnesota United FC at home only, Houston Dynamo away only.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Minnesota United FC 1 · draws 0 · Houston Dynamo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | Minnesota United FC | 3-1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-15 | Houston Dynamo | 2-0 | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
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