Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: model vs market
| Source | Colorado Rapids | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Colorado Rapids below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colorado Rapids, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 1.75 | 1.92 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.75 | -0.15 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 4.05 | 3.50 | -0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Colorado Rapids / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 0.96 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Colorado Rapids / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 0.88 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colorado Rapids goals. Columns: San Jose Earthquakes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colorado Rapids | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colorado Rapids or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or San Jose Earthquakes) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colorado Rapids win by 2+ | 29% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
Colorado Rapids
2W 2D 2L
San Jose Earthquakes
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colorado Rapids at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-3
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Jose Earthquakes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colorado Rapids at home only, San Jose Earthquakes away only.
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Colorado Rapids 2 · draws 0 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Colorado Rapids | 2-0 | San Jose Earthquakes | US Open Cup |
| 2025-05-11 | Colorado Rapids | 0-2 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-2 | Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
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