Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps: model vs market
| Source | Los Angeles FC | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 34% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vancouver Whitecaps, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 2.60 | 2.65 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.66 | -0.04 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 2.40 | 2.38 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Los Angeles FC / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 0.79 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Los Angeles FC / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 0.81 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Los Angeles FC goals. Columns: Vancouver Whitecaps goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles FC | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Los Angeles FC or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Vancouver Whitecaps) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver Whitecaps win by 2+ | 19% | 5.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Los Angeles FC and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form
Los Angeles FC
1W 3D 2L
Vancouver Whitecaps
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Los Angeles FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vancouver Whitecaps away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-2
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 2.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.09
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Los Angeles FC at home only, Vancouver Whitecaps away only.
Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Los Angeles FC 0 · draws 3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-11-23 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-2 | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-30 | Los Angeles FC | 0-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-11 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-2 | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
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