Inter Miami vs DC United: model vs market
| Source | Inter Miami | Draw | DC United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Published | 67% | 18% | 16% |
| Edge | -13% | +4% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.46.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Inter Miami vs DC United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter Miami, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 1.36 | 1.33 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.50 | +0.30 |
| DC United | 6.75 | 7.00 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter Miami and DC United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (Inter Miami / DC United)
- 1.25 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Inter Miami / DC United)
- 1.18 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter Miami vs DC United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter Miami goals. Columns: DC United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter Miami vs DC United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter Miami vs DC United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.58 | |
| DC United | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter Miami or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or DC United) | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Inter Miami and DC United recent form
Inter Miami
1W 4D 1L
DC United
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter Miami at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-2
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 2.69
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter Miami at home only, DC United away only.
Inter Miami vs DC United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Inter Miami 2 · draws 1 · DC United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | DC United | 1-2 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-20 | Inter Miami | 3-2 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-23 | DC United | 1-1 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
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- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page 2026-10-10
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Charlotte v FC Dallas — match page 2026-10-10
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo 2026-10-11