Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: model vs market
| Source | Chicago Fire | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chicago Fire, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.94 | +0.02 |
| New York City FC | 3.90 | 3.94 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chicago Fire and New York City FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Chicago Fire / New York City FC)
- 0.98 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Chicago Fire / New York City FC)
- 1.03 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chicago Fire goals. Columns: New York City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| New York City FC | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chicago Fire or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or New York City FC) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chicago Fire win by 2+ | 21% | 4.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chicago Fire and New York City FC recent form
Chicago Fire
1W 3D 2L
New York City FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chicago Fire at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-4
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chicago Fire at home only, New York City FC away only.
Chicago Fire vs New York City FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Chicago Fire 0 · draws 0 · New York City FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | New York City FC | 3-1 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-14 | Chicago Fire | 1-3 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-25 | New York City FC | 3-1 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
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