FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution preview
In the fixture between FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cincinnati at 43%, while New England Revolution is at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which has a 7% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with FC Cincinnati recording L-D-D-L-L-D, while New England Revolution has L-W-W-W-L-W. The expected goals are 1.81 for FC Cincinnati and 2.09 for New England Revolution. Factors that could affect the outcome include the teams' recent performances and their ability to convert chances, especially given the high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 74%.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution: model vs market
| Source | FC Cincinnati | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 22% | 44% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 30% |
| Published | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Edge | -13% | -1% | +14% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cincinnati, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| New England Revolution | 3.08 | 3.08 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (FC Cincinnati / New England Revolution)
- 1.07 / 1.10
- Defence rating (FC Cincinnati / New England Revolution)
- 1.39 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cincinnati goals. Columns: New England Revolution goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| New England Revolution | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cincinnati or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or New England Revolution) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cincinnati win by 2+ | 18% | 5.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution recent form
FC Cincinnati
0W 3D 3L
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cincinnati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-2
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 2.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New England Revolution away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-7
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cincinnati at home only, New England Revolution away only.
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Cincinnati 2 · draws 0 · New England Revolution 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | New England Revolution | 6-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-14 | New England Revolution | 0-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-05 | FC Cincinnati | 1-0 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Inter Miami v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- FC Cincinnati, previous: Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati: odds and pick
- New England Revolution, previous: New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders prediction