Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City preview
In the match between Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City, the 1X2 probabilities show Nashville SC at 74% to win, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0 at 10%. Nashville SC has an expected goals figure of 2.67, while Sporting Kansas City sits at just 0.91.
However, Nashville SC's recent form includes a draw, which could impact their performance. Sporting Kansas City has shown some resilience with a recent win, but their overall form is concerning, with 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The model suggests a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 56%, but unpredictable outcomes are always possible.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City: model vs market
| Source | Nashville SC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Published | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nashville SC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1.27 | 1.27 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.85 | 5.85 | +0.00 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 9.00 | 9.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Nashville SC / Sporting Kansas City)
- 1.21 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Nashville SC / Sporting Kansas City)
- 0.67 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nashville SC goals. Columns: Sporting Kansas City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nashville SC | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.22 | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 10% | 9.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nashville SC or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Kansas City) | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 54% | 1.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City recent form
Nashville SC
3W 2D 1L
Sporting Kansas City
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nashville SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-1-0
- Win rate
- 93%
- Goals for / match
- 2.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Kansas City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-11
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.79
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nashville SC at home only, Sporting Kansas City away only.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes 2026-10-15
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Nashville SC, previous: Austin – Nashville SC, 2026-10-11
- Sporting Kansas City, previous: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers: odds and pick