Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes preview
In the match between Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Salt Lake at 49% to win, while San Jose Earthquakes sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring 9% of the time according to our model. There is a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score.
Real Salt Lake's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while San Jose Earthquakes have managed 3 wins in their last 6. The expected goals are 1.56 for Real Salt Lake and 1.42 for San Jose Earthquakes. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: model vs market
| Source | Real Salt Lake | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Edge | -13% | +3% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Salt Lake, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 1.78 | 1.75 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 4.00 | +0.02 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Real Salt Lake / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 0.82 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Real Salt Lake / San Jose Earthquakes)
- 1.06 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Salt Lake goals. Columns: San Jose Earthquakes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Salt Lake | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Salt Lake or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or San Jose Earthquakes) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Salt Lake win by 2+ | 20% | 4.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes recent form
Real Salt Lake
1W 1D 4L
San Jose Earthquakes
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Salt Lake at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Salt Lake at home only, San Jose Earthquakes away only.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Real Salt Lake 1 · draws 0 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Real Salt Lake | 2-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4-0 | Real Salt Lake | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page 2026-10-15
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Los Angeles FC vs Austin 2026-10-15
- San Diego v Houston Dynamo — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Real Salt Lake, previous: Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake, 2026-10-10
- San Jose Earthquakes, previous: Colorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes analysis