Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union preview
In the match between Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union, the 1X2 probabilities show Chicago Fire at 33% and Philadelphia Union at 44%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score is at 72%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 74%.
Chicago Fire's recent form includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Philadelphia Union has won their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.58 for Chicago Fire and 2.29 for Philadelphia Union. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Chicago Fire can improve their form or if Philadelphia Union's winning streak ends, the predictions might change.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: model vs market
| Source | Chicago Fire | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 21% | 53% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 41% |
| Published | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Edge | -10% | -2% | +12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Philadelphia Union below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Philadelphia Union, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.00 |
| Philadelphia Union | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (Chicago Fire / Philadelphia Union)
- 1.07 / 1.71
- Defence rating (Chicago Fire / Philadelphia Union)
- 0.97 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chicago Fire goals. Columns: Philadelphia Union goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Philadelphia Union | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chicago Fire or draw) | 56% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Philadelphia Union) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Philadelphia Union win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union recent form
Chicago Fire
2W 2D 2L
Philadelphia Union
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chicago Fire at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Philadelphia Union away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-7
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 2.21
- Goals against / match
- 2.21
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chicago Fire at home only, Philadelphia Union away only.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Chicago Fire 1 · draws 1 · Philadelphia Union 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Philadelphia Union | 1-2 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-11-01 | Chicago Fire | 0-3 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-26 | Philadelphia Union | 2-2 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-23 | Philadelphia Union | 4-0 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-26 | Chicago Fire | 0-1 | Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes 2026-10-15
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Chicago Fire, previous: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: odds and pick
- Philadelphia Union, previous: Philadelphia Union – Real Salt Lake, 2026-10-10