CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC preview
In the match between CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC, the 1X2 probabilities show CF Montreal at 42%, a draw at 26%, and Atlanta United FC at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a 59% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 54%.
CF Montreal's recent form is poor, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Atlanta United FC has drawn 2 of their last 6 games. The expected goals are close, with CF Montreal at 1.39 and Atlanta United FC at 1.45. This tight matchup could lead to different outcomes if CF Montreal improves their form or if Atlanta United FC struggles to convert their chances.
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC: model vs market
| Source | CF Montreal | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | -10% | +2% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CF Montreal, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Atlanta United FC | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (CF Montreal / Atlanta United FC)
- 0.77 / 0.89
- Defence rating (CF Montreal / Atlanta United FC)
- 1.19 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CF Montreal goals. Columns: Atlanta United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Montreal | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Atlanta United FC | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CF Montreal or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlanta United FC) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Montreal win by 2+ | 17% | 6.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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CF Montreal and Atlanta United FC recent form
CF Montreal
1W 0D 5L
Atlanta United FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CF Montreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta United FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-7
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CF Montreal at home only, Atlanta United FC away only.
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: CF Montreal 0 · draws 1 · Atlanta United FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Atlanta United FC | 3-1 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-09 | CF Montreal | 1-1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | Atlanta United FC | 3-2 | CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
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- DC United vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution 2026-10-14
- Inter Miami v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- CF Montreal, previous: Toronto FC v CF Montreal analysis
- Atlanta United FC, previous: Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati: odds and pick