Inter Miami vs New York City FC preview
In the upcoming fixture, Inter Miami has a 61% probability to win against New York City FC, who sit at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Inter Miami has an expected goals figure of 1.85, while New York City FC's is lower at 1.36.
Both teams to score has a 64% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 62%. Recent form shows Inter Miami struggling with 4 draws and 1 win in their last 6 matches, while New York City FC has 2 wins in their last 6. A draw could change the expected outcome, given their recent performances.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC: model vs market
| Source | Inter Miami | Draw | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 16% |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Edge | -16% | +5% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.36.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter Miami, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 1.45 | 1.45 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.00 |
| New York City FC | 5.60 | 5.75 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter Miami and New York City FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Inter Miami / New York City FC)
- 1.25 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Inter Miami / New York City FC)
- 1.18 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter Miami goals. Columns: New York City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter Miami vs New York City FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter Miami | 60% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 | |
| New York City FC | 19% | 5.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter Miami or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or New York City FC) | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win by 2+ | 27% | 3.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Inter Miami and New York City FC recent form
Inter Miami
1W 4D 1L
New York City FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter Miami at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-2
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 2.69
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New York City FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter Miami at home only, New York City FC away only.
Inter Miami vs New York City FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Inter Miami 3 · draws 1 · New York City FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | New York City FC | 2-3 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-11-29 | Inter Miami | 5-1 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-24 | New York City FC | 0-4 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | Inter Miami | 2-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- DC United vs New York Red Bulls — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Inter Miami, previous: Inter Miami – DC United, 2026-10-10
- New York City FC, previous: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC: odds and pick