DC United vs New York Red Bulls preview
In the fixture between DC United and New York Red Bulls, DC United has a 52% chance to win compared to 23% for New York Red Bulls. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 12% of the time according to our model. The expected goals show DC United at 1.48 and New York Red Bulls at 0.94, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, both teams to score stands at 48%, suggesting that New York could find the net. Recent form shows DC United with 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while New York has 2 wins but also 3 losses. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results, making the outcome less certain.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls: model vs market
| Source | DC United | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | -5% | +5% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.94.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls odds movement
Median bookmaker price on DC United, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.00 |
| New York Red Bulls | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
DC United and New York Red Bulls expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (DC United / New York Red Bulls)
- 0.90 / 0.63
- Defence rating (DC United / New York Red Bulls)
- 1.08 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: DC United goals. Columns: New York Red Bulls goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for DC United vs New York Red Bulls
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | DC United | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| New York Red Bulls | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (DC United or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or New York Red Bulls) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | DC United win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
DC United and New York Red Bulls recent form
DC United
1W 3D 2L
New York Red Bulls
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
DC United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.79
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
New York Red Bulls away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.79
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: DC United at home only, New York Red Bulls away only.
DC United vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: DC United 1 · draws 1 · New York Red Bulls 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | New York Red Bulls | 4-4 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-24 | DC United | 0-2 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-19 | New York Red Bulls | 1-2 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Columbus Crew vs Charlotte 2026-10-14
- CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution 2026-10-14
- Inter Miami v New York City FC — match page 2026-10-14
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- DC United, previous: Inter Miami – DC United, 2026-10-10
- New York Red Bulls, previous: New York Red Bulls v San Diego analysis