Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers preview
In the matchup between Los Angeles Galaxy and Portland Timbers, the 1X2 probabilities show Los Angeles Galaxy at 49% to win, while Portland Timbers sit at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams have a 69% probability of scoring, and the expected goals are 1.96 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.60 for Portland Timbers.
Recent form indicates Los Angeles Galaxy has won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Portland Timbers has lost 4 out of their last 5. The head-to-head record shows Los Angeles Galaxy has not won in their last 3 encounters, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss against Portland Timbers. These factors could influence the outcome, particularly if Portland Timbers improves their form.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers: model vs market
| Source | Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Los Angeles Galaxy, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 1.87 | 1.85 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.93 | 3.92 | -0.01 |
| Portland Timbers | 3.40 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Los Angeles Galaxy and Portland Timbers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Los Angeles Galaxy / Portland Timbers)
- 0.94 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Los Angeles Galaxy / Portland Timbers)
- 1.05 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Los Angeles Galaxy goals. Columns: Portland Timbers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Portland Timbers | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Los Angeles Galaxy or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Portland Timbers) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles Galaxy win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Los Angeles Galaxy and Portland Timbers recent form
Los Angeles Galaxy
3W 1D 2L
Portland Timbers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Los Angeles Galaxy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portland Timbers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-9
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Los Angeles Galaxy at home only, Portland Timbers away only.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Los Angeles Galaxy 0 · draws 2 · Portland Timbers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Portland Timbers | 1-1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-28 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 2-4 | Portland Timbers | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-16 | Portland Timbers | 1-1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union 2026-10-15
- Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City — match page 2026-10-15
- St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes 2026-10-15
- Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC — match page 2026-10-15
- Los Angeles FC vs Austin 2026-10-15
- San Diego v Houston Dynamo — match page 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Los Angeles Galaxy, previous: St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy prediction
- Portland Timbers, previous: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers: odds and pick