St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy: model vs market
| Source | St. Louis City | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Published | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices St. Louis City below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Louis City, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 1.55 | 1.60 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.01 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 5.15 | 4.43 | -0.72 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (St. Louis City / Los Angeles Galaxy)
- 1.39 / 0.94
- Defence rating (St. Louis City / Los Angeles Galaxy)
- 0.90 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Louis City goals. Columns: Los Angeles Galaxy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Louis City | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Louis City or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Los Angeles Galaxy) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
St. Louis City and Los Angeles Galaxy recent form
St. Louis City
4W 1D 1L
Los Angeles Galaxy
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Louis City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles Galaxy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Louis City at home only, Los Angeles Galaxy away only.
St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: St. Louis City 2 · draws 1 · Los Angeles Galaxy 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 1-3 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-14 | St. Louis City | 3-3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-09 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 0-3 | St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
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