New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire preview
In the match between New England Revolution and Chicago Fire, the 1X2 probabilities show New England Revolution at 38%, draw at 25%, and Chicago Fire at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. Both teams to score has a 65% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 62%.
New England Revolution's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Chicago Fire has 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in the same period. The expected goals are closely matched, with New England Revolution at 1.62 and Chicago Fire at 1.60. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: model vs market
| Source | New England Revolution | Draw | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices New England Revolution below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New England Revolution, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 2.40 | 2.34 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.80 | -0.05 |
| Chicago Fire | 2.60 | 2.70 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (New England Revolution / Chicago Fire)
- 1.09 / 1.03
- Defence rating (New England Revolution / Chicago Fire)
- 1.09 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New England Revolution goals. Columns: Chicago Fire goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New England Revolution | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Chicago Fire | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New England Revolution or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Chicago Fire) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | New England Revolution win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire recent form
New England Revolution
4W 0D 2L
Chicago Fire
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New England Revolution at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Chicago Fire away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New England Revolution at home only, Chicago Fire away only.
Injuries & availability
New England Revolution absences
-
A. Yusuf
muscle injury
-
J. Harrison
lower-body injury
-
L. Campana
hamstring injury
- M. Fofana lower-body injury
Chicago Fire absences
-
A. Franco
knee injury
-
A. Mekvabishvili
lower-body injury
- J. Elliott suspended
-
R. Lod
lower-body injury
- S. Rogers lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New England Revolution 2 · draws 6 · Chicago Fire 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Chicago Fire | 1-2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-18 | New England Revolution | 2-2 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-07 | Chicago Fire | 3-2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-20 | New England Revolution | 1-3 | Chicago Fire | US Open Cup |
| 2024-05-05 | Chicago Fire | 0-1 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-03-23 | New England Revolution | 1-1 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-24 | Chicago Fire | 2-2 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-27 | New England Revolution | 3-3 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-09 | Chicago Fire | 1-1 | New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-08-31 | New England Revolution | 0-0 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City 2026-10-17
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami 2026-10-17
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- New England Revolution, previous: FC Cincinnati – New England Revolution, 2026-10-14
- Chicago Fire, previous: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union prediction