New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC preview
In the match between New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC, the 1X2 probabilities show New York Red Bulls at 46% and Toronto FC at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. New York Red Bulls have an expected goals figure of 1.57 compared to Toronto FC's 1.15, suggesting they may have the upper hand.
However, the recent form indicates some inconsistency, with New York Red Bulls recording W-L-W-W-L-D and Toronto FC at W-L-L-L-W-D. Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%. These factors could lead to unexpected outcomes, making the match unpredictable despite the statistical leanings.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: model vs market
| Source | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 53% | 22% | 24% |
| Published | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | -10% | +4% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New York Red Bulls, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 2.08 | 1.74 | -0.34 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Toronto FC | 3.00 | 3.82 | +0.82 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (New York Red Bulls / Toronto FC)
- 0.79 / 1.01
- Defence rating (New York Red Bulls / Toronto FC)
- 0.95 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals. Columns: Toronto FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Toronto FC | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York Red Bulls or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Toronto FC) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | New York Red Bulls win by 2+ | 23% | 4.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC recent form
New York Red Bulls
3W 0D 3L
Toronto FC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York Red Bulls at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toronto FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New York Red Bulls at home only, Toronto FC away only.
Injuries & availability
New York Red Bulls absences
-
A. Marcucci
knee injury
Toronto FC absences
-
B. Kuscevic
yellow cards
-
N. Palacio
lower-body injury
-
R. Laryea
yellow cards
-
W. Zimmerman
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New York Red Bulls 6 · draws 4 · Toronto FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Toronto FC | 1-1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-06-25 | Toronto FC | 1-1 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-22 | New York Red Bulls | 2-1 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-02 | Toronto FC | 1-4 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-28 | New York Red Bulls | 0-0 | Toronto FC | Leagues Cup |
| 2024-06-22 | New York Red Bulls | 3-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-10-07 | New York Red Bulls | 3-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-17 | Toronto FC | 0-0 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-06-18 | New York Red Bulls | 2-0 | Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-03-05 | Toronto FC | 1-4 | New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City 2026-10-17
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami 2026-10-17
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page 2026-10-17
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- New York Red Bulls, previous: DC United vs New York Red Bulls prediction
- Toronto FC, previous: Toronto FC – Orlando City SC, 2026-10-14