New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC preview
In the match between New York City FC and Los Angeles FC, the 1X2 probabilities show New York City FC at 35% and Los Angeles FC at 37%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 11%. New York City FC's expected goals stand at 1.13, while Los Angeles FC has an expected goals figure of 0.95.
Both teams to score is at 43%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 34%. New York City FC's recent form is L-D-L-W-L-D, while Los Angeles FC has a record of D-L-D-L-W-D. The head-to-head record shows New York City FC has 0 wins and Los Angeles FC has 1 win. A draw could change the outcome of the predictions.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC: model vs market
| Source | New York City FC | Draw | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 33% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | -4% | +6% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Los Angeles FC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 2.73 | 2.63 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.50 | -0.02 |
| Los Angeles FC | 2.35 | 2.47 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.10
- Attack rating (New York City FC / Los Angeles FC)
- 0.72 / 0.84
- Defence rating (New York City FC / Los Angeles FC)
- 0.94 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York City FC goals. Columns: Los Angeles FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York City FC | 35% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Los Angeles FC | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York City FC or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Los Angeles FC) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles FC win by 2+ | 15% | 6.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New York City FC and Los Angeles FC recent form
New York City FC
1W 1D 4L
Los Angeles FC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Los Angeles FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-6
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New York City FC at home only, Los Angeles FC away only.
Injuries & availability
New York City FC absences
-
A. Farnos
injury
-
D. Baiera
knee injury
-
K. Parks
injury
-
K. Trewin
ankle injury
-
M. Moralez
knee injury
Los Angeles FC absences
- C. Carter arm injury
- J. Ebobisse leg injury
-
T. Tillman
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: New York City FC 1 · draws 5 · Los Angeles FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Los Angeles FC | 1-1 | New York City FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-03-02 | Los Angeles FC | 1-0 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-01-28 | Los Angeles FC | 1-1 | New York City FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-01-28 | New York City FC | 1-1 | Los Angeles FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-29 | Los Angeles FC | 1-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2019-03-17 | New York City FC | 2-2 | Los Angeles FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2018-05-14 | Los Angeles FC | 2-2 | New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City 2026-10-17
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami 2026-10-17
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- New York City FC, previous: Inter Miami v New York City FC analysis
- Los Angeles FC, previous: Los Angeles FC v Austin analysis