Orlando City SC vs DC United preview
Orlando City SC faces DC United with a 66% chance of winning according to our model, while DC United has just a 16% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.71 for Orlando City SC and 1.35 for DC United.
Both teams to score has a 70% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 77%. However, Orlando's recent form shows variability with 3 wins in the last 6 matches, while DC United has struggled, recording only 1 win in their last 6. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Orlando City SC vs DC United: model vs market
| Source | Orlando City SC | Draw | DC United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 19% | 21% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Published | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.54.
- The market prices Orlando City SC below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Orlando City SC vs DC United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Orlando City SC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 1.70 | 1.67 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.10 |
| DC United | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orlando City SC and DC United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.11
- Attack rating (Orlando City SC / DC United)
- 1.29 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Orlando City SC / DC United)
- 1.30 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orlando City SC vs DC United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orlando City SC goals. Columns: DC United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orlando City SC vs DC United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orlando City SC vs DC United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orlando City SC | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | |
| DC United | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orlando City SC or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or DC United) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando City SC win by 2+ | 40% | 2.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orlando City SC and DC United recent form
Orlando City SC
2W 1D 3L
DC United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orlando City SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-4
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Orlando City SC at home only, DC United away only.
Injuries & availability
Orlando City SC absences
-
G. Dorsey
back injury
-
T. Spicer
foot injury
DC United absences
-
G. Segal
leg injury
- H. Kijima leg injury
- L. Bartlett suspended
-
L. Munteanu
leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Orlando City SC vs DC United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Orlando City SC 4 · draws 2 · DC United 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | DC United | 3-2 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-09-13 | DC United | 1-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-22 | Orlando City SC | 4-1 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-06 | Orlando City SC | 5-0 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-04-13 | DC United | 2-3 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-22 | Orlando City SC | 1-3 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-03-12 | DC United | 1-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-31 | DC United | 2-1 | Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-04 | Orlando City SC | 3-5 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-10-02 | Orlando City SC | 2-1 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami 2026-10-17
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page 2026-10-17
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Orlando City SC, previous: Toronto FC – Orlando City SC, 2026-10-14
- DC United, previous: DC United vs New York Red Bulls prediction
- DC United, next: FC Cincinnati v DC United analysis