FC Cincinnati vs DC United preview
In the match between FC Cincinnati and DC United, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cincinnati at 50%, while DC United stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 71%.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. FC Cincinnati has recorded L-W-L-D-D-L, while DC United's recent results are W-L-D-L-D-W. The head-to-head record is evenly split, with each team having 4 wins in the last 10 encounters. With a confidence grade of C, the match could go in various directions despite the statistical leanings.
FC Cincinnati vs DC United: model vs market
| Source | FC Cincinnati | Draw | DC United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.59.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cincinnati vs DC United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cincinnati, 24 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 1.50 | 1.57 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.50 | -0.15 |
| DC United | 5.50 | 4.75 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cincinnati and DC United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (FC Cincinnati / DC United)
- 1.08 / 0.86
- Defence rating (FC Cincinnati / DC United)
- 1.34 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cincinnati vs DC United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cincinnati goals. Columns: DC United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cincinnati vs DC United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cincinnati vs DC United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| DC United | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cincinnati or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or DC United) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cincinnati win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cincinnati and DC United recent form
FC Cincinnati
1W 2D 3L
DC United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cincinnati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
DC United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-4
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cincinnati at home only, DC United away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Cincinnati absences
-
A. Lajhar
injury
-
D. Doudera
inactive
-
S. Gidi
injury
DC United absences
-
G. Segal
leg injury
-
K. Rowles
thigh injury
-
T. Baribo
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Cincinnati vs DC United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cincinnati 4 · draws 2 · DC United 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | FC Cincinnati | 1-2 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-12 | DC United | 0-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-07-03 | DC United | 2-3 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-03-10 | FC Cincinnati | 0-0 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-06-24 | DC United | 3-0 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-06 | FC Cincinnati | 2-1 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-09 | DC United | 2-5 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-03-05 | FC Cincinnati | 0-1 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-09-25 | DC United | 4-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-07-31 | FC Cincinnati | 0-0 | DC United | Major League Soccer |
Before and after this match
- FC Cincinnati, previous: FC Cincinnati – Columbus Crew, 2026-10-18
- DC United, previous: Orlando City SC v DC United analysis