Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego preview
In the match between Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego, the 1X2 probabilities show Los Angeles Galaxy at 54% to win, while San Diego sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams have shown contrasting recent form, with Los Angeles Galaxy winning 2 of their last 5 matches compared to San Diego's 0 wins in their last 6.
The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with a 71% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly given San Diego's strong head-to-head record, winning all 3 of their last encounters against Los Angeles Galaxy.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego: model vs market
| Source | Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 34% |
| Published | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Edge | +9% | -4% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Los Angeles Galaxy below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Los Angeles Galaxy, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 1.95 | 2.20 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.94 | -0.06 |
| San Diego | 3.30 | 2.79 | -0.51 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.31
- Attack rating (Los Angeles Galaxy / San Diego)
- 1.00 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Los Angeles Galaxy / San Diego)
- 1.21 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Los Angeles Galaxy goals. Columns: San Diego goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| San Diego | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.29 |
| No | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Los Angeles Galaxy or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or San Diego) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Los Angeles Galaxy win by 2+ | 33% | 3.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego recent form
Los Angeles Galaxy
3W 1D 2L
San Diego
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Los Angeles Galaxy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Diego away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-7
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Los Angeles Galaxy at home only, San Diego away only.
Injuries & availability
Los Angeles Galaxy absences
-
H. Lozano
hamstring injury
- K. Furuhashi hamstring injury
-
R. Puig
knee injury
San Diego absences
- O. Soe lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Los Angeles Galaxy 0 · draws 0 · San Diego 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | San Diego | 3-1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-24 | San Diego | 2-1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-24 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 0-2 | San Diego | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC 2026-10-18
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Los Angeles Galaxy, previous: Los Angeles Galaxy – Portland Timbers, 2026-10-15
- San Diego, previous: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo: odds and pick