San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC preview
In the match between San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Nashville SC at 55%, while San Jose Earthquakes sit at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both have a probability of 58%, indicating a strong possibility for an open game.
San Jose Earthquakes have an expected goals figure of 1.11, while Nashville SC is at 1.91. This suggests Nashville SC may dominate offensively. However, the recent form shows San Jose Earthquakes with a mixed record of D-W-D-W-W-D, which could lead to an unexpected result. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: model vs market
| Source | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | -10% | -2% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nashville SC below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nashville SC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3.30 | 3.48 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.80 | -0.05 |
| Nashville SC | 2.00 | 1.95 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (San Jose Earthquakes / Nashville SC)
- 0.92 / 1.47
- Defence rating (San Jose Earthquakes / Nashville SC)
- 0.99 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Jose Earthquakes goals. Columns: Nashville SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25% | 4.07 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Nashville SC | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Jose Earthquakes or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Nashville SC) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nashville SC win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC recent form
San Jose Earthquakes
3W 3D 0L
Nashville SC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Jose Earthquakes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nashville SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 20 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Jose Earthquakes at home only, Nashville SC away only.
Injuries & availability
San Jose Earthquakes absences
-
B. Kikanovic
lower-body injury
-
D. Johnson
lower-body injury
-
D. Jones
achilles tendon injury
- J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza injury
- J. Skahan lower-body injury
-
N. Adimabua
hernia
- N. Tsakiris upper-body injury
Nashville SC absences
- F. Camara lower-body injury
- O. Presthus lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: San Jose Earthquakes 0 · draws 4 · Nashville SC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | Nashville SC | 1-1 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-06-12 | Nashville SC | 0-0 | San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-04-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-2 | Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego — match page 2026-10-18
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- San Jose Earthquakes, previous: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: odds and pick
- Nashville SC, previous: Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas City, 2026-10-15