Brooklyn vs Detroit City: model vs market
| Source | Brooklyn | Draw | Detroit City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 31% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| Published | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Edge | -6% | +5% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brooklyn vs Detroit City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Detroit City, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn | 3.75 | 3.85 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.40 | +0.04 |
| Detroit City | 1.85 | 1.81 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brooklyn and Detroit City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (Brooklyn / Detroit City)
- 0.79 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Brooklyn / Detroit City)
- 1.52 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brooklyn vs Detroit City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brooklyn goals. Columns: Detroit City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brooklyn vs Detroit City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brooklyn vs Detroit City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brooklyn | 22% | 4.54 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Detroit City | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.74 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brooklyn or draw) | 50% | 2.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Detroit City) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Detroit City win by 2+ | 25% | 4.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brooklyn and Detroit City recent form
Brooklyn
1W 2D 3L
Detroit City
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brooklyn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Detroit City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brooklyn at home only, Detroit City away only.
Brooklyn vs Detroit City head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Brooklyn 0 · draws 0 · Detroit City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Detroit City | 3-0 | Brooklyn | USL Championship |