Brooklyn vs Rhode Island: model vs market
| Source | Brooklyn | Draw | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brooklyn vs Rhode Island odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rhode Island, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn | 3.85 | 4.15 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.75 | +0.13 |
| Rhode Island | 1.75 | 1.69 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brooklyn and Rhode Island expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Brooklyn / Rhode Island)
- 0.78 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Brooklyn / Rhode Island)
- 1.57 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brooklyn vs Rhode Island score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brooklyn goals. Columns: Rhode Island goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brooklyn vs Rhode Island goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brooklyn vs Rhode Island
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brooklyn | 21% | 4.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Rhode Island | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brooklyn or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Rhode Island) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brooklyn and Rhode Island recent form
Brooklyn
0W 2D 4L
Rhode Island
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brooklyn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rhode Island away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-8
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brooklyn at home only, Rhode Island away only.
Brooklyn vs Rhode Island head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Brooklyn 0 · draws 1 · Rhode Island 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Rhode Island | 1-1 | Brooklyn | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-05-23 | Rhode Island | 4-1 | Brooklyn | USL Championship |