Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion: model vs market
| Source | Detroit City | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Detroit City below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Detroit City, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit City | 1.57 | 1.61 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Birmingham Legion | 4.85 | 4.78 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Detroit City and Birmingham Legion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Detroit City / Birmingham Legion)
- 0.90 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Detroit City / Birmingham Legion)
- 0.57 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Detroit City goals. Columns: Birmingham Legion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Detroit City | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Birmingham Legion | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Detroit City or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham Legion) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Detroit City win by 2+ | 38% | 2.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Detroit City and Birmingham Legion recent form
Detroit City
2W 3D 1L
Birmingham Legion
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Detroit City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-1
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 0.38
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Birmingham Legion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-6
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 1.45
- Goals against / match
- 2.18
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 11
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Detroit City at home only, Birmingham Legion away only.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Detroit City 6 · draws 2 · Birmingham Legion 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Birmingham Legion | 1-2 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-18 | Birmingham Legion | 1-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-22 | Detroit City | 2-2 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-17 | Birmingham Legion | 0-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-26 | Detroit City | 1-2 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-27 | Birmingham Legion | 2-3 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-27 | Detroit City | 1-0 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-18 | Birmingham Legion | 1-2 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2022-04-15 | Detroit City | 1-0 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |