FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United: model vs market
| Source | FC Tulsa | Draw | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 28% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Tulsa, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tulsa | 1.85 | 1.95 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.50 | -0.02 |
| New Mexico United | 3.60 | 3.38 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Tulsa and New Mexico United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (FC Tulsa / New Mexico United)
- 0.91 / 1.29
- Defence rating (FC Tulsa / New Mexico United)
- 0.79 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tulsa goals. Columns: New Mexico United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tulsa | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| New Mexico United | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tulsa or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or New Mexico United) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tulsa win by 2+ | 21% | 4.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Tulsa and New Mexico United recent form
FC Tulsa
2W 3D 1L
New Mexico United
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tulsa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.58
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-3
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tulsa at home only, New Mexico United away only.
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Tulsa 4 · draws 2 · New Mexico United 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | New Mexico United | 1-0 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2025-11-16 | FC Tulsa | 3-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-14 | New Mexico United | 0-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-10 | FC Tulsa | 5-2 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-13 | FC Tulsa | 1-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-15 | New Mexico United | 3-3 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-27 | New Mexico United | 2-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2022-07-14 | FC Tulsa | 1-2 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2019-10-13 | FC Tulsa | 2-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2019-03-21 | New Mexico United | 2-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |