FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic: model vs market
| Source | FC Tulsa | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 34% | 29% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Edge | +4% | +4% | -8% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sacramento Republic, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tulsa | 2.77 | 2.70 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Sacramento Republic | 2.34 | 2.46 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Tulsa and Sacramento Republic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.96
- Attack rating (FC Tulsa / Sacramento Republic)
- 0.90 / 1.14
- Defence rating (FC Tulsa / Sacramento Republic)
- 0.67 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tulsa goals. Columns: Sacramento Republic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tulsa | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Sacramento Republic | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tulsa or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Sacramento Republic) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win by 2+ | 11% | 9.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Tulsa and Sacramento Republic recent form
FC Tulsa
2W 3D 1L
Sacramento Republic
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tulsa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.54
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sacramento Republic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-3
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tulsa at home only, Sacramento Republic away only.
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Tulsa 3 · draws 4 · Sacramento Republic 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | FC Tulsa | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2026-03-08 | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-08 | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-29 | FC Tulsa | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-23 | FC Tulsa | 0-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-14 | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-29 | FC Tulsa | 1-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-27 | Sacramento Republic | 2-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2020-03-08 | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2019-10-06 | FC Tulsa | 2-3 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |