Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio: model vs market
| Source | Las Vegas Lights | Draw | San Antonio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 34% | 25% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Edge | +2% | +6% | -9% |
- The market prices Las Vegas Lights below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Las Vegas Lights, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Lights | 2.21 | 2.35 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.30 | +0.02 |
| San Antonio | 2.80 | 2.69 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Las Vegas Lights and San Antonio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.90
- Attack rating (Las Vegas Lights / San Antonio)
- 0.91 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Las Vegas Lights / San Antonio)
- 1.00 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Las Vegas Lights goals. Columns: San Antonio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Vegas Lights | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| San Antonio | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Las Vegas Lights or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or San Antonio) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Vegas Lights win by 2+ | 17% | 5.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Las Vegas Lights and San Antonio recent form
Las Vegas Lights
1W 1D 4L
San Antonio
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Las Vegas Lights at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Antonio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-3
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 26 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Las Vegas Lights at home only, San Antonio away only.
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Las Vegas Lights 2 · draws 4 · San Antonio 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | San Antonio | 1-2 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-10 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-1 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-08 | San Antonio | 3-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2024-05-12 | San Antonio | 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-07 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-07 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-2 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-30 | San Antonio | 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-14 | San Antonio | 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2022-07-28 | Las Vegas Lights | 0-2 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2021-06-12 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-1 | San Antonio | USL Championship |