Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive: model vs market
| Source | Lexington | Draw | El Paso Locomotive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -8% | +2% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lexington, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 1.99 | 1.85 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.67 | +0.14 |
| El Paso Locomotive | 3.12 | 3.55 | +0.42 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lexington and El Paso Locomotive expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Lexington / El Paso Locomotive)
- 1.57 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Lexington / El Paso Locomotive)
- 0.92 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lexington goals. Columns: El Paso Locomotive goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| El Paso Locomotive | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lexington or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or El Paso Locomotive) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lexington and El Paso Locomotive recent form
Lexington
3W 0D 3L
El Paso Locomotive
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lexington at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
El Paso Locomotive away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Lexington at home only, El Paso Locomotive away only.
Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Lexington 1 · draws 0 · El Paso Locomotive 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | El Paso Locomotive | 1-4 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-11 | Lexington | 1-2 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-06 | El Paso Locomotive | 2-1 | Lexington | USL Championship |