Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven: model vs market
| Source | Loudoun United | Draw | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.21.
- The market prices Loudoun United below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Loudoun United, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loudoun United | 2.10 | 2.23 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.53 | -0.07 |
| Indy Eleven | 2.88 | 2.75 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Loudoun United and Indy Eleven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Loudoun United / Indy Eleven)
- 1.06 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Loudoun United / Indy Eleven)
- 1.21 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Loudoun United goals. Columns: Indy Eleven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Loudoun United | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Indy Eleven | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Loudoun United or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Indy Eleven) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Loudoun United win by 2+ | 23% | 4.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Loudoun United and Indy Eleven recent form
Loudoun United
1W 1D 4L
Indy Eleven
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Loudoun United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-8-4
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Indy Eleven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Loudoun United at home only, Indy Eleven away only.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Loudoun United 4 · draws 1 · Indy Eleven 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Indy Eleven | 0-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-19 | Indy Eleven | 2-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-16 | Loudoun United | 3-2 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-08 | Loudoun United | 0-1 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-13 | Indy Eleven | 1-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-26 | Indy Eleven | 2-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-06 | Loudoun United | 1-2 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2022-09-25 | Indy Eleven | 1-0 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-12 | Loudoun United | 1-0 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2021-08-18 | Loudoun United | 4-1 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |