Miami FC vs Sporting JAX: model vs market
| Source | Miami FC | Draw | Sporting JAX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | +8% | -4% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.23.
- The market prices Miami FC below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Miami FC vs Sporting JAX odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Miami FC, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 1.67 | 1.55 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 4.06 | +0.41 |
| Sporting JAX | 4.40 | 4.75 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Miami FC and Sporting JAX expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.86
- Attack rating (Miami FC / Sporting JAX)
- 0.96 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Miami FC / Sporting JAX)
- 1.17 / 1.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Miami FC vs Sporting JAX score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Miami FC goals. Columns: Sporting JAX goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Miami FC vs Sporting JAX goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Miami FC vs Sporting JAX
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miami FC | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 | |
| Sporting JAX | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Miami FC or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting JAX) | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Miami FC win by 2+ | 47% | 2.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Miami FC and Sporting JAX recent form
Miami FC
2W 2D 2L
Sporting JAX
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Miami FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
Sporting JAX away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-10
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 2.38
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Miami FC at home only, Sporting JAX away only.
Miami FC vs Sporting JAX head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Miami FC 2 · draws 0 · Sporting JAX 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sporting JAX | 0-1 | Miami FC | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-03-25 | Sporting JAX | 2-4 | Miami FC | USL Championship |