New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising: model vs market
| Source | New Mexico United | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 46% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | +17% | -3% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.20.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +16.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New Mexico United, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 1.96 | 2.17 | +0.21 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.60 | -0.05 |
| Phoenix Rising | 3.06 | 2.77 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (New Mexico United / Phoenix Rising)
- 1.17 / 0.97
- Defence rating (New Mexico United / Phoenix Rising)
- 1.05 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New Mexico United goals. Columns: Phoenix Rising goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Phoenix Rising | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New Mexico United or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Phoenix Rising) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win by 2+ | 37% | 2.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising recent form
New Mexico United
1W 3D 2L
Phoenix Rising
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New Mexico United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-6
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New Mexico United at home only, Phoenix Rising away only.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New Mexico United 5 · draws 1 · Phoenix Rising 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | New Mexico United | 4-0 | Phoenix Rising | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-04-12 | Phoenix Rising | 3-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-05 | Phoenix Rising | 0-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-01 | Phoenix Rising | 3-3 | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-05-11 | New Mexico United | 1-2 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-11-04 | New Mexico United | 2-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-10 | New Mexico United | 1-2 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-03-31 | Phoenix Rising | 0-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-08 | Phoenix Rising | 1-2 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2023-06-22 | New Mexico United | 1-3 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |