Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay: model vs market
| Source | Orange County SC | Draw | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Orange County SC, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 1.95 | 1.91 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.58 | +0.10 |
| Monterey Bay | 3.32 | 3.38 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orange County SC and Monterey Bay expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Orange County SC / Monterey Bay)
- 0.87 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Orange County SC / Monterey Bay)
- 1.46 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orange County SC goals. Columns: Monterey Bay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Monterey Bay | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orange County SC or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Monterey Bay) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orange County SC win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Orange County SC and Monterey Bay recent form
Orange County SC
1W 2D 3L
Monterey Bay
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orange County SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-10
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orange County SC at home only, Monterey Bay away only.
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Orange County SC 4 · draws 1 · Monterey Bay 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Monterey Bay | 1-2 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-12 | Monterey Bay | 2-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-01 | Monterey Bay | 3-2 | Orange County SC | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-03-23 | Orange County SC | 0-3 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-22 | Monterey Bay | 0-0 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-28 | Orange County SC | 2-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-15 | Monterey Bay | 0-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2023-07-02 | Orange County SC | 3-1 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2022-09-08 | Monterey Bay | 1-0 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2022-07-10 | Orange County SC | 0-2 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |