Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven: model vs market
| Source | Rhode Island | Draw | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Market | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | -6% | +6% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rhode Island, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | 1.67 | 1.80 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.75 | +0.10 |
| Indy Eleven | 4.33 | 3.75 | -0.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rhode Island and Indy Eleven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Rhode Island / Indy Eleven)
- 0.89 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Rhode Island / Indy Eleven)
- 0.86 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rhode Island goals. Columns: Indy Eleven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 50% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Indy Eleven | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rhode Island or draw) | 75% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Indy Eleven) | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win by 2+ | 22% | 4.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rhode Island and Indy Eleven recent form
Rhode Island
2W 1D 3L
Indy Eleven
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rhode Island at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-2
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Indy Eleven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-7
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rhode Island at home only, Indy Eleven away only.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rhode Island 2 · draws 1 · Indy Eleven 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Indy Eleven | 1-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-13 | Rhode Island | 1-0 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-12 | Indy Eleven | 1-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2024-11-03 | Indy Eleven | 2-3 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-07 | Indy Eleven | 1-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-05 | Rhode Island | 3-3 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |