Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: model vs market
| Source | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 18% |
| Edge | -6% | +6% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.67.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sacramento Republic, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.53 | 1.62 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.70 | -0.14 |
| Las Vegas Lights | 5.00 | 5.03 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.98
- Attack rating (Sacramento Republic / Las Vegas Lights)
- 1.03 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Sacramento Republic / Las Vegas Lights)
- 0.69 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sacramento Republic goals. Columns: Las Vegas Lights goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.71 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sacramento Republic or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Vegas Lights) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights recent form
Sacramento Republic
2W 4D 0L
Las Vegas Lights
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sacramento Republic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-2
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Las Vegas Lights away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-6
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sacramento Republic at home only, Las Vegas Lights away only.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sacramento Republic 5 · draws 2 · Las Vegas Lights 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-05 | Las Vegas Lights | 0-2 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-01 | Sacramento Republic | 4-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-05-18 | Sacramento Republic | 5-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2024-11-02 | Las Vegas Lights | 0-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-22 | Las Vegas Lights | 2-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-04 | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-01 | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2023-07-30 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-2 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-21 | Las Vegas Lights | 2-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |