Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC: model vs market
| Source | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.11.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tampa Bay Rowdies, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.35 | 1.34 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.78 | +0.48 |
| Miami FC | 6.50 | 7.42 | +0.92 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Miami FC)
- 1.19 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Miami FC)
- 0.80 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tampa Bay Rowdies goals. Columns: Miami FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Miami FC | 14% | 7.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Miami FC) | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC recent form
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2W 2D 2L
Miami FC
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tampa Bay Rowdies at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 12
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Miami FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-6
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tampa Bay Rowdies at home only, Miami FC away only.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tampa Bay Rowdies 9 · draws 1 · Miami FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Miami FC | 2-3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2026-05-16 | Miami FC | 1-4 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-06-14 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-1 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-26 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-3 | Miami FC | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-03-22 | Miami FC | 1-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-24 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-11 | Miami FC | 2-5 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-26 | Miami FC | 0-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2022-10-22 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-1 | Miami FC | USL Championship |