Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC preview
Deportivo La Guaira faces Carabobo FC with a 25% chance to win compared to Carabobo's 50%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.22 for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.79 for Carabobo FC.
Both teams to score stands at 60%, and there's a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, Deportivo La Guaira's recent form shows 5 games without a win, which could impact their performance. Carabobo FC, on the other hand, has a stronger recent record, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches. This contrast in form may affect the outcome of the match.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Carabobo FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Carabobo FC)
- 1.14 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Carabobo FC)
- 1.32 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Columns: Carabobo FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 25% | 4.03 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Carabobo FC | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo La Guaira or draw) | 50% | 1.99 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Carabobo FC) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carabobo FC win by 2+ | 28% | 3.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC recent form
Deportivo La Guaira
0W 3D 3L
Carabobo FC
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo La Guaira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-6
- Win rate
- 28%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carabobo FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Guaira at home only, Carabobo FC away only.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo La Guaira 1 · draws 5 · Carabobo FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Carabobo FC | 3-1 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-09-15 | Carabobo FC | 1-0 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-02 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-09-28 | Carabobo FC | 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-04-17 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-11-10 | Carabobo FC | 1-1 | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División |
| 2024-11-03 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-1 | Carabobo FC | Primera División |
| 2024-09-15 | Carabobo FC | 3-1 | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División |
| 2024-03-19 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 | Carabobo FC | Primera División |
| 2024-01-27 | Deportivo La Guaira | 4-1 | Carabobo FC | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 5 fixtures
- Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Caracas FC vs Puerto Cabello 2026-11-07
- Portuguesa FC v Metropolitanos FC — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Guaira, previous: Portuguesa FC – Deportivo La Guaira, 2026-11-04
- Carabobo FC, previous: Metropolitanos FC v Carabobo FC analysis