Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff MET | Draw | Haverfordwest County AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.02.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cardiff MET, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff MET | 1.98 | 1.85 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.46 | +0.06 |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 3.40 | 3.60 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Cardiff MET / Haverfordwest County AFC)
- 1.16 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Cardiff MET / Haverfordwest County AFC)
- 0.96 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff MET goals. Columns: Haverfordwest County AFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff MET or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Haverfordwest County AFC) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff MET win by 2+ | 26% | 3.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC recent form
Cardiff MET
2W 3D 1L
Haverfordwest County AFC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff MET at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Haverfordwest County AFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff MET at home only, Haverfordwest County AFC away only.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cardiff MET 0 · draws 6 · Haverfordwest County AFC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 1-0 | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League |
| 2026-01-23 | Cardiff MET | 0-2 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-12-30 | Cardiff MET | 0-0 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-08-22 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 2-2 | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League |
| 2025-04-11 | Cardiff MET | 1-1 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League |
| 2025-02-21 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 1-0 | Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| 2024-09-27 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 1-0 | Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| 2024-08-26 | Cardiff MET | 0-0 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League |
| 2023-12-09 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 1-1 | Cardiff MET | Welsh Cup |
| 2023-11-28 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 1-1 | Cardiff MET | Premier League |