Holywell vs Penybont preview
In the fixture between Holywell and Penybont, the 1X2 probabilities show Penybont at 81% to win, while Holywell sits at just 7%. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 0-3, which aligns with Penybont's expected goals of 3.16 compared to Holywell's 0.88.
Penybont's recent form is strong, with 6 wins in their last 6 matches, while Holywell has lost 5 of their last 6. The model also indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 57%. However, if Holywell can improve their performance, the match could yield a different outcome than expected.
Holywell vs Penybont: model vs market
| Source | Holywell | Draw | Penybont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 12% | 81% |
| Market | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| Published | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Holywell vs Penybont odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penybont, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holywell | 8.00 | 8.95 | +0.95 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.40 | +0.50 |
| Penybont | 1.31 | 1.25 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Holywell and Penybont expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.04
- Attack rating (Holywell / Penybont)
- 0.75 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Holywell / Penybont)
- 1.83 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Holywell vs Penybont score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Holywell goals. Columns: Penybont goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Holywell vs Penybont goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Holywell vs Penybont
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 9% | 10.77 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.35 | |
| Penybont | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Holywell or draw) | 25% | 4.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Penybont) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win by 2+ | 64% | 1.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Holywell and Penybont recent form
Holywell
0W 1D 5L
Penybont
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Holywell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 3.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 0 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Penybont away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Holywell at home only, Penybont away only.
Holywell vs Penybont head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Holywell 0 · draws 0 · Penybont 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-05 | Penybont | 2-1 | Holywell | Welsh Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Holywell, previous: Holywell vs The New Saints: odds and pick
- Penybont, previous: Penybont v Barry Town analysis